Harris, Trump in Lockstep as First Ballots Go Out

Less than 50 days out from the 2024 presidential election, Democrats find themselves in as strong a position as at any other point in the cycle, largely driven by their change in candidates. However, the contest remains extraordinarily close. This is the key takeaway from polling conducted after the (likely only) debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, and in the wake of a second assassination attempt on Trump last Sunday. Both campaigns are in a crucial moment, with the first mail-in ballots already being distributed.

Kamala Harris remains a slight favorite in the race for the presidency, but the margin between her and Donald Trump is razor-thin. With Harris projected to secure 226 electoral votes and Trump 219, the outcome hinges on seven key toss-up states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, where neither candidate holds a clear advantage. All seven of these states were decided by less than 3% in either direction in the 2020 election. With the exception of Nevada (which voted blue twice) and North Carolina (which voted red twice), the other five states flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020.

If both candidates win all the states in their solid, likely, and lean categories, the race would come down to the seven toss-up states. Harris would need 44 electoral votes from these states to win, while Trump would need 51. Trump's most efficient path back to the White House involves holding North Carolina and flipping Georgia and Pennsylvania, which would give him exactly 270 electoral votes. Harris’s clearest path runs entirely through the Rust Belt: she would also hit exactly 270 electoral votes by holding Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. As a result, Pennsylvania remains the state most likely to push either candidate above that critical threshold.